Talanoa Talks on Climate Change

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The Talanoa Dialogue's purpose is to share stories, build empathy, and help leaders make wise decisions for the collective good. Join The Fijian Prime Minister - President of the COP23 Talks - for a London edition of the “Talanoa Talks”. On 29 November, on the eve of the world convening for major climate talks in Poland - COP24 - extraordinary speakers from all over the world will share their stories and discuss the way forward at the most pivotal time yet.

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Nations must triple efforts to reach 2°C target, concludes annual review of global emissions, climate action
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  It is still possible to keep global warming below 2°C, but the technical feasibility of bridging the 1.5°C gap is dwindling.

  Global CO2 emissions increased in 2017, after three years of stabilization.

  If the emissions gap is not closed by 2030, it is extremely unlikely that the 2°C temperature goal will remain in reach.

Global emissions are on the rise as national commitments to combat climate change come up short. But surging momentum from the private sector and untapped potential from innovation and green financing offer means of bridging the "emissions gap" between current projections of 2030 emission levels and levels consistent with a 2°C / 1.5°C warming target. Those findings, along with a sweeping review of climate action and the latest measurements of global emissions, were presented by authors of UN Environment's 2018 Emissions Gap Report during a recent launch event.

488 companies from 38 countries adopted emission reduction pathways in line with the Paris Agreement.

The findings presented offer the latest accounting of national mitigation efforts and the ambitions countries have presented in their Nationally Determined Contributions, which form the foundation of the Paris Agreement.

This evidence, outlined just days before the start of the 24th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP24), reveals that global emissions have reached historic levels of 53.5 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e), with no peak in sight. Authors assessed that only 57 countries (representing 60 percent of global emissions) are on track for 2030.

That analysis and a review of progress against national commitments under the Paris Agreement makes clear that the current pace of national action is insufficient to meet the Paris targets. Increased emissions and lagging action mean the gap number in this year’s report is larger than ever. The authors conclude nations must raise their ambition by 3x to meet the 2°C target and 5x to meet the 1.5°C target.

“If the IPCC report represented a global fire alarm, this report is the arson investigation,” said UN Environment Deputy Executive Director Joyce Msuya. “The science is clear. For all the ambitious climate action we’ve seen, governments need to move faster and with greater urgency. We’re feeding this fire while the means to extinguish it are within reach.”

A continuation of current trends will likely result in global warming of around 3°C by the end of the century, with continued temperature rises after that, according to the report.

While the authors highlight that there is still a possibility for bridging the emissions gap and keeping global warming below 2°C, the assessment issues a clear warning: The kind of drastic, large-scale action we urgently need has yet to been seen, and time is running out.

To fill this void, the 2018 Emissions Gap Report offers new insight into what meaningful climate action will look like. Through new analysis of global emissions in the context of fiscal policymaking and the current pace of innovation, as well as an exhaustive review of climate action from the private sector and subnational level, authors offered a roadmap for implementing the type of transformative action required to harness the potential in each of these sectors.

Ranging from city, state and regional governments to companies, investors, higher education institutions and civil society organizations, non-state actors are increasingly committing to bold climate action. These institutions will be invaluable contributors in the push to reach global emissions goals. Although estimates on the emission reduction potential vary widely, some mention 19 GtCO2e by 2030. This is enough to close the 2°C gap.

If complemented by carefully designed national fiscal policy, the work of these actors could pack an even greater punch.

“When governments embrace fiscal policy measures to subsidize low-emission alternatives and tax fossil fuels, they can stimulate the right investments in the energy sector and significantly reduce carbon emissions,” said Jian Liu, UN Environment’s Chief Scientist. “Thankfully, the potential of using fiscal policy as an incentive is increasingly recognized, with 51 carbon pricing initiatives now in place or scheduled, covering roughly 15 percent of global emissions. If all fossil fuel subsidies were phased out, global carbon emissions could be reduced by up to 10 percent by 2030. Setting the right carbon price is also essential. At the US $70 per ton of CO2, emission reductions of up to 40 percent are possible in some countries.”

These established strategies become even more effective when policymakers embrace innovative solutions. Authors outlined five key principles that should be considered to accelerate low-carbon innovation: risk acceptance, commercial scalability, holistic economic alignment, mission-oriented approaches, and a long-term horizon to increase financial uptake.

The ninth Emissions Gap Report was prepared by an international team of leading scientists, assessing all available information, including that published in the context of the IPCC Special Report as well as in other recent scientific studies.

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The Marshall Islands and Other Climate-Vulnerable Nations Rally for Concerted Action
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Women leaders take center stage in a sweeping virtual conference

For many countries around the world, the benchmarks put in place in the Paris Agreement—intended to keep net global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and certainly below 2 degrees—have fallen by the wayside in the years since, kicked under the rug amid the continual thrum of politics and bureaucracy. For the Marshall Islands and other low-lying nations, however, sidelining the Paris commitments is simply not an option: achieving them could be the difference between life and death.

Watch LIVE: www.virtualclimatesummit.org

The people and government of the Marshall Islands have become known for their unflinching 1.5 to Stay Alive climate campaign, which stresses that if temperature change surpasses 1.5 degrees, let alone 2, rising sea levels would submerge much of their ancestral and current homeland and render their beautiful nation uninhabitable. Given the Marshalls’ cultural emphasis on home, legacy, and the bounties of nature, this loss would be especially dire.

The Marshall Islands sit at the helm of a group of similarly threatened countries known collectively as the Climate Vulnerable Forum, or CVF, which aims to unite disparate voices from smaller countries and amplify their concerns for the rest of the world to hear. The group is proactive its own right too, intent on leading by example on the world stage through pioneering sustainability campaigns. Today and tomorrow, the CVF is conducting an ambitious web-based conference called the Virtual Climate Summit in a push to raise awareness of the severity of warming trends and brainstorm next steps in the ongoing battle against climate change.

H.E. President Hilda Heine of the Marshall Islands - Connect4Climate Quote

Participants in the discussion will include other imperiled island nations such as Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Timor-Leste, Sri Lanka, and Papua New Guinea as well as mainland countries confronting deadly changes in weather patterns, e.g., Nepal, Vietnam, Sudan, Senegal, and Yemen. Under the leadership of president Hilda Heine, the Marshall Islands have taken special care to include female voices in this dialogue, which will be catalyzed by a volunteer panel of all-female Summit Champions.

This collective of climate change Champions comprises European Climate Foundation CEO Laurence Tubiana, Sustainable Energy for All CEO Rachel Kyte, World Bank Sustainable Development VP Laura Tuck, Global Environment Facility CEO Naoko Ishii, former Irish president Mary Robinson, current Philippine senator Loren Legarda, Oxfam International director Winnie Byanyima, and Greenpeace director Jennifer Morgan. Hailing from all corners of the world, the members of the team will aim to ensure women’s perspective on climate change is at the heart of the conference deliberations—where it belongs.

The threats of global warming weigh heaviest on the minds of women, who make up 70% of the world’s poor—a group disproportionately threatened by unchecked climate change. Yet women in many countries also have a unique power to make a positive impact, being as they are invaluable contributors to the cultivation and preparation of food and frequent providers of shelter, warmth, water, and clothes within their families.

The Summit hopes to rekindle a sense of urgency around global warming and to empower the world’s women to defy recent torpor on the world stage and harness their unsuppressed voices to make a real difference.

WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2017

Global mean temperatures in 2017 were 1.1 °C ± 0.1 °C above pre-industrial levels. Whilst 2017 was a cooler year than the record-setting 2016, it was still one of the three warmest years on record, and the warmest not influenced by an El Niño event. The average global temperature for 2013–2017 is close to 1 °C above that for 1850–1900 and is also the highest five-year average on record. The world also continued to see rising sea levels, with some acceleration, and increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases.

Low-carbon cities: exploring new crediting approaches to deliver carbon and climate finance
With accelerated urbanization and growing population density, cities have become centers of global economic activity. Also, the urban sector accounts for a considerable share of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing cities’ carbon footprint will become an important factor in meeting the climate change goals of the Paris Agreement. In developing countries, rapidly urbanizing areas hold the largest climate change mitigation opportunities in sectors such as urban development, transport, energy, and buildings.
Climate Vulnerable Forum Virtual Summit 2018

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The CVF Virtual Climate Summit will be broadcast live on 22 November 2018 starting 8 AM Majuro Time (MHT) / 8 PM Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). It is a strategically-timed political moment for national leaders to stand in solidarity with those most vulnerable to the growing impacts of climate change, and reinforce efforts under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5ºC.

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IFC 2018 Climate Business Forum - Day 2 highlights
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It's a wrap! At the 5th IFC Climate Business Forum 2018, participants emphasized why climate action is their business, how climate solutions are our business, and why everyone should be involved. 

Check our photo album on Flickr

Thriving climate business models are those that are profitable, and impactful. Over US$ 1 trillion flows annually to climate business, ranging from smart cities, climate-smart agriculture, green finance, renewable energy, and green buildings. Climate business is the economic growth story of today — and tomorrow. Together we are building a decarbonized, resilient future. 

Call to action: Climate is My Business, Our Business

"The need to invest to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals and the climate targets is huge, and so climate action is the right thing to do and the most exciting space to be, with new technologies and approaches."

Hans Peter Lankes, Vice President, IFC

Facebook LIVE Interviews

IFC Climate Business Forum 2018  Manu Jindal, Sustainability Project Manager, Nespresso, was at the 5th IFC Annual Climate Business Forum 2018 in Vienna to talk with Alzbeta Klein about how to green supply chains.

IFC Climate Business Forum 2018  Jing Qian, Vice President, Jinko Power, with Shari Friedman at the IFC Climate Business Forum in Vienna to examine the future of solar energy.

IFC Climate Business Forum 2018  Hans Peter Lankes, Vice President, IFC, with Giulia Braga to talk more about how to make Climate Business everybody’s business.

IFC Climate Business Forum 2018  Sonia Lo, CEO, CropOne Holdings, talks with Giulia Braga about the future of farming.

IFC Climate Business Forum 2018  At the 5th IFC Climate Business Forum in Vienna, Patricia Fuller, Climate Change Ambassador, Canada, talks with Alzbeta Klein to address Canada’s vision on how to accelerate climate action.

Banner and thumbnail photo credits to Kaia Rose / Connect4Climate

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IFC 2018 Climate Business Forum - Day 1 highlights
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The 5th IFC Annual Climate Business Forum 2018 is taking place in the Austrian capital, Vienna. The client-focused event has offered innovators in climate-smart business, investing, and policymaking an excellent chance for new business development, networking, and knowledge exchange. 
 
The Forum has also been a pivotal opportunity to discuss opportunities across industries ranging from climate-smart cities, climate-smart agribusiness, green building, electric transportation, green bonds, and technologies of the future.
 
 
The recent release of the IPCC's report signaling that the warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways will witness irreversible effects has led to further momentum in urging to urgent climate action. Moreover, climate change paves the way for investments that can be facilitated through a collective effort by businesses and governments.
 
Connect4Climate is supporting the IFC for the Digital Media Zone: Climate is My Business from where we have brought highlights through Facebook LIVE discussions out of the Forum.

Facebook LIVE Interviews

IFC Climate Business Forum 2018  Michl Binderbauer, CEO, TAE Technologies, talks with Giulia Braga about Fusion Energy to Power Society at the IFC Climate Business Forum in Vienna.
 
IFC Climate Business Forum 2018  Carlos Acosta, General Manager, Municipality of Barranquilla, Colombia, discusses with Alzbeta Klein about Cities Leading Climate Business at the IFC Climate Business Forum in Vienna.
 
IFC Climate Business Forum 2018  At the IFC Climate Business Forum in Vienna,​ Antoine Predour, Head of Energy Debt Financing at responsAbility, speaks with Giulia Braga about Sustainable Investment in Growth Markets. 
 
IFC Climate Business Forum 2018  Kiril Shevchenko, CEO, Ukrgasbank, with Giulia Braga at the IFC Climate Business Forum in Vienna to talk more about the Role of Green Banking
 
IFC Climate Business Forum 2018  Christopher Flensborg, Head of Climate & Sustainable Finance, SEB, with Giulia Braga discussing Climate Finance for Systemic Transformation at the IFC Climate Business Forum in Vienna.
 
 
Banner and thumbnail photo credits to Dani Martinez / Connect4Climate
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IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C: Key takeaways and expert responses
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World governments party to the Paris Agreement requested a comprehensive report on the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming, and how best to limit warming. The report assessed more than 6,000 scientific papers, with input from 91 authors and editors from 40 countries. The report will be a foundation of December’s COP24 in Poland, where governments will finalize the Paris Agreement’s "rulebook." The 1.5°C report is the first in a series of Special Reports to be produced in the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Cycle. Next year, the IPCC will release a report on land use as well as report on oceans and the cryosphere.

Key takeaways:

       ​  The climate consequences of a 2°C world are far greater than that of 1.5°C and that we are not on track for either
 
       ​  Limiting warming to 1.5°C is barely feasible, and every year we delay the window of feasibility halves
 
       ​  It will be expensive, but the window of opportunity is not yet closed
 

Climate Impacts

Impacts are already occurring and will be much worse at 2°C than previously projected. That means 2°C is no longer a safe goal to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. We can prevent much, but not all, of the loss and risk of climate change by limiting warming to 1.5°C. For example, coral reefs are projected to decline 70–90% at 1.5°C and more than 99% at 2°C. With 1.5°C of global warming, the Arctic will have one sea-ice-free summer per century. At 2°C of warming, the Arctic is more likely to have one sea-ice-free summer per decade.  Limiting global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C is projected to prevent the thawing of an area of permafrost the size of Mexico. Risks from heavy precipitation events are projected to be higher at 2°C compared to 1.5°C global warming in several regions, including eastern North America. Heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones is also projected to be higher at 2°C compared to 1.5°C. Impacts related to forest fires are lower at 1.5°C compared to 2°C of global warming. There is a significant risk of crossing critical thresholds and even triggering tipping points as warming goes from 1.5˚C to 2°C.
 
“One of the key messages that come out very strongly from this report is that we already see the consequences of 1°C of global warming through more extreme weather, rising sea levels, and diminishing Arctic sea ice, among other changes.” - Panmao Zhai, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group I.
 
“Every extra bit of warming matters, especially since warming of 1.5°C or higher increases the risk associated with long-lasting or irreversible changes, such as the loss of some ecosystems.”- Hans-Otto Pörtner, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group II.

Human Impacts

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C could reduce the number of people both exposed to climate-related risks and susceptible to poverty by up to several hundred million by 2050 compared with 2°C. Global economic growth faces a greater threat at 2°C of warming versus 1.5°C. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C could reduce the proportion of the world population exposed to a climate-change-induced increase in water stress by up to 50% compared to 2°C. The global annual catch for marine fisheries could decline by about 1.5 million metric tons for 1.5°C of global warming compared to a loss of more than 3 million metric tons for 2°C of global warming. Livestock is projected to be adversely affected by rising temperatures.
 
“For some people, this is a life or death situation, without a doubt.”- Natalie Mahowald, lead author, chapter one, and author, Summary for Policymakers.

Economic Trends

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require “rapid and far-reaching” transitions in land, energy, industry, buildings, transport, and cities. These systems transitions are “unprecedented” concerning scale, but not necessarily regarding speed. Economic trends are already transforming the power sector, which is moving rapidly to wind and solar. The options for transforming the industrial sector are already technically proven at various scale. The transitions in each sector must start now and be well underway in the next two decades. The report provides the economic blueprint to continue the transformation in the power sector and start to transition other sectors to zero or negative emissions.
 
“The good news is that some of the kinds of actions that would be needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C are already underway around the world, but they would need to accelerate.” - Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Co-Chair of Working Group I.

Energy Transition and Transformational Change

The amount of coal in the global electricity mix would need to be reduced to close to 0% by 2050. Renewables are projected to supply 48-60% of electricity by 2030 and 63–81% by 2050 if warming is limited to 1.5°C. The share of primary energy provided by nuclear energy increases 58-98% over 2010 levels by 2030. Total energy-related investments are about 12% higher in 1.5°C pathways than 2°C pathways, and annual investment in low-carbon energy technologies and energy efficiency is roughly five times higher by 2050 than 2015. To limit warming 1.5°C, CO2 emissions from industry are projected to be 75–90% lower in 2050 from 2010 levels.

Targets and Political Will

Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if temperatures continue to increase at the current rate. The best path for limiting warming to 1.5°C means reducing carbon pollution by about 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030 and reaching net zero by 2050. The report explicitly finds that current Paris Agreement pledges are not enough to limit warming to 1.5°C, and governments need to strengthen national climate policies to limit warming.
 
“As scientists, we are now done, and it’s in the hands of governments. And governments have signed off on every line, on every word in this report. And so this is now going back to each government for them to think about how they are going to reflect this in their policies. And of course, what I hope is that they will rapidly take this up. I expect that my hopes will be realized.”- Kristie Ebi, lead author, chapter three and author, Summary for Policymakers.
 
“Some governments might carry it more forward than others, but what’s also going to be important is how all the states, provinces and cities are looking forward to what this report might have to say. There will be an interesting interplay between all of those actors. It’s certainly the governments, but I think multiple other perspectives and interests will be addressed and that will then, in turn, create a larger discussion.” - William Solecki, coordinating lead author, chapter one and author, Summary for Policymakers.

Geoengineering

Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) is poorly developed and risky, and would not mitigate some impacts of climate change like ocean acidification. SRM is not appropriate for consideration as a climate protection measure at this time, according to the report.

Carbon Drawdown and Overshoot

All pathways that limit global warming to 1.5°C with limited or no overshoot project the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) on the order of 100–1000 GtCO2 over the 21st century, i.e., in order to limit warming to 1.5°C degrees we have to dramatically reduce emissions and pull existing carbon pollution out of the atmosphere. No single carbon drawdown technology or approach is sufficient, and many approaches have significant problems, particularly when deployed at scale. The draft report recommends investing in a portfolio of several drawdown strategies (ex: land restoration, BECCS, direct air capture) and highlights the deployment of natural carbon drawdown systems in farming, forestry, and wetlands. Significant near-term emissions reductions and measures to lower energy and land demand can limit CDR deployment to a few hundred GtCO2 without reliance on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). In theory, carbon drawdown also might be used to bring temperatures back down if we overshoot 1.5°C. However, the report warns that reversing warming after an overshoot of 0.2°C or larger during this century would require upscaling and deployment of CDR at rates and volumes that might not be achievable given considerable implementation challenges. Even if we limit warming to 1.5°C with no overshoot, we may need to reserve carbon drawdown to minimize sea level rise which will continue even when the global temperature stabilizes.
 
Banner and thumbnail image credit to Pixabay.com