When Cyclone Pam arrived in the south Pacific Ocean bringing destruction, devastation, and new levels of anxiety to those it affected, I thought it was wrong to sit by and do nothing. I decided to use my business, Five Boys Clothing, as a mechanism for good.

I am half I-Kiribati (the term used to describe a person from the country of Kiribati) and still have relatives living in the far-flung, low-lying beautiful island of Kiribati and across the Pacific.

In the past few weeks, I and others from the I-Kiribati community have found it increasingly difficult to establish good communication channels with our families in Kiribati. What we have heard consistently over the past few months is that the “king tides” that naturally occur at this time of year have been the biggest that anyone who lives in the Oceana region have ever been known.

The author, Sophia Walsh (middle of the second row from the top), at age eight, with her family.
In accordance with I-Kiribati tradition the extended family mostly live as a Kainga – all the siblings live together, with their children and grandchildren, and now great grandchildren. Walsh now lives in England.

Because of Kiribati's geography, any small changes in sea level can have an enormous effect.

Kiribati is composed of three archipelagos in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. Together, they span an area greater than the United States. Straddling the equator, Kiribati is the only nation in the world to have land in both the Northern, Southern, Western, and Eastern Hemispheres. With the sole exception of one raised atoll, no where in Kiribati is more than two meters above the sea level.

The Tarawa atoll, capital of the republic of Kiribati. Credit: Mark Tranchant

Freak high tides creep up and across the island, spilling into ground-level wells and contaminating the water.

Due to the low lying position of the atolls of Kiribati, small changes in weather conditions have a big effect. Severe changes in weather conditions have a disastrous effect.  Global warming is causing severe and consistent damage to the islands, particularly with fresh water supplies because the rise in sea levels causes increased salinity in the ground water.

My family has one well that hasn't been contaminated, but there are many families in the Pacific region that are not so fortunate.

When I was working as a journalist in Peru in 1999, I saw the devastation of the 1997-98 El Nio first hand. Heading north from Lima, the flood damage to homes was clearly visible. Large sections of road were cut off by landslides, buildings were turned to rubble and cultivated fields were laid to waste.

Rising sea surface temperatures suggest that another El Nio is on its way. The UN's weather agency, the World Meteorological Organisation, says there is a 60% chance of it starting before September this year. An El Nio event usually happens every five years, but a severe one hits every 15 to 20 years. We are due for another.

The El Nio Southern Oscillation, to give it its full title, is characterised by higher water temperatures in equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean, which leads to changes in wind patterns. This has widespread effects, from higher-than-normal rainfall in the Americas, to droughts in India and Australia, to heavy snowfall in the UK. If a severe El Nio hits this year it would bring heavy rainfall to South America in December. Much needs to be done to protect lives and livelihoods, and the next four months are critical.

In Peru, local governments have identified flood control channels and embankment projects that would help minimise losses. A recent report published by UNDP and ODI says local governments should come up with their own risk management projects and seek support to implement them. But national government bureaucracy in Peru is holding things up. In the border province of Piura, 115 small projects have been identified to prevent flooding and landslides, but none have received funding yet, and local officials are getting nervous. There are even calls for the National Public Investment System to relax its rules to allow projects to start immediately.

In neighbouring Ecuador there are problems that may take longer to fix. Disaster risks are not addressed in 90% of Ecuadors municipal development plans, said a source in a provincial planning department. This means that buildings keep going up in high-risk areas.

Despite these issues, much has changed in South America since 1998. I would expect the impact of a severe El Nio to be less damaging. Banks across South America are in better financial shape this year to deal with the costs than in the past, according to Moody's Investors Service. Over the last decade, economic growth, poverty reduction and disaster risk governance reforms have made Peru and Ecuador more resilient to climate extremes. At the Regional Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction in the Americas last month, Ecuador's Minister of Defence, Mara Fernanda Espinosa, spoke of "constant improvements in practices, laws and standards for risk reduction".

Scientists now know a lot more about El Nio and can give advance warning of the kind of event that is expected. I spoke to UNDP Perus Alfredo Zerga, who said that a great deal can be done to prepare for a severe El Nio now. Families can find out if their home is in a flood-prone area as all local governments have risk maps, and they can identify points that are higher than the surrounding topography. These actions will certainly help save lives.

So how will South America fare when the next severe El Nio hits? Thanks to strong economic performance, political will and decentralisation of risk management, we have come a long way since 1999. But populations are still at risk and urgent action is needed.

In Luca Florez's Action4Climate documentary Back to Paoyhan, a shipibo shaman visits his home community in the Peruvian Amazon after the flood.

Watch below.

[video:https://vimeo.com/95548021]