Another September to Remember for Climate Change?

As expected, both the US and China announced their respective ratifications of the Paris Agreement ahead of the G20 meetings on September 3rd. The symbolism of the world’s two largest historical producers of carbon emissions cannot be overstated, but as large as the symbol of the US-China commitment is, it is outweighed by the legal nature of the announcement. Combined, the US and China contribute nearly 38.76% of all carbon emissions to the planet. For the Paris Agreement to go “into force,” the legal language meaning “effect,” a collection of countries responsible for more than 55% of the world’s emissions have to ratify the deal through their own domestic procedures.

At COP21 in Paris, Parties to the UNFCCC reached the Paris Agreement to combat climate change. Photo credit: Max Thabiso Edkins 

So, essentially, the US-China announcement on September 3rd, by itself, almost ensures the Paris Agreement will go into force. Still, there’s progress to be made as the G20 also proved to be the first setting where Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicly declared that India would not be able to ratify the agreement before the end of the year. With the Indian ratification a ways off, the next big ratification announcement looks like it will come from Brazil. The impeachment of Rousseff Dilma on August 31st delayed Brazil’s highly anticipated ratification announcement, but it is expected before the end of the year and potential before the end of September.

The news of the US and China ratifying the Paris Agreement was certainly an unofficial “kickoff” for this year’s G20 meetings, but ratification was far from the only climate news coming out of Hangzhou this weekend. First of all, the fact that the G20 was in Hangzhou, China is certainly big news as it’s first year China played host to the meeting of the world’s twenty largest economic bodies. From the beginning there was pressure on the group to reflect the G7’s commitment to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies by 2025, and it seems the G20 didn’t deliver as hoped. The leader’s communique simply repeated the language from prior texts committing  to a “medium term” end to the supply of an estimated  $160 billion and $5.3 trillion into the fossil fuel industry. While the handouts to oil companies were not given a firm end date, the G20 did deliver a commitment to help shift trillions of dollars in private capital into the green economy. This mixed bag of a meeting has lead many to start looking already towards next year’s G20 meetings in Germany. “Excuses are running out,” said Shelagh Whitley of the Overseas Development Institute, adding, “the time for action is now. Our research shows G20 countries are continuing to fund fossil fuel production by $444bn, and next year’s summit in Germany will be the last chance to agree an end date for such subsidies. Failing to do so will lock yet another generation into a lifetime of dependency on centuries old energy systems, putting a break on the transition to clean energy and passing the bill – and the climate fallout – onto far more vulnerable groups and countries.”

While the G20, its mixed climate communique and the US-China ratification announcement, is an interesting start for September, it will only be the beginning of what looks to be an active month of international gatherings. From the 1st through the 10th of September, Hawaii plays host to the 10th IUCN World Conservation Congress. At the host city of Honolulu, the WCC will not only be  place for meetings and high-level speakers, it’s Members Assembly, which is made up of about 1,300 members including some of the most influential government and civil society organisations from more than 160 countries, will collectively decide on actions to address the world’s most pressing and often controversial conservation and sustainable development challenges.

United Nations Headquarters New York. Photo credit: Leigh Vogel

Of course, there’s is no overlooking the UN General Assembly when it comes to major international moments. This year’s annual summit in New York City will be the first multilateral meeting of global leaders since both the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals and last year’s COP 21 meetings in Paris. It may also be the last UNGA with a number of prominent climate leaders. Ban Ki-moon is stepping down as UN Secretary General and by this time next year a newly elected Secretary General will preside over the General Assembly. This will also be Barack Obama’s last UNGA as president and could very well be the same for Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Francois Hollande. Perhaps wanting to capture whatever momentum is left post-Paris and ahead leadership transition, the UN Secretary General is hosting a special meeting on the 21st of September to aimed at accelerating Paris Agreement entry into force. When the UNGA ends it gives way to the meeting of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in Montreal, Canada that will continue into October. This year there are high expectations that the ICAO meetings will deliver real rules for the aviation industry to reduce its emissions.

For years, the International Civil Aviation Organization meetings have been dogged for failing to produce substantial plans for reducing carbon emissions from the aviation industry. In fact, the last time the ICAO summit was held, a plane pulling a banner reading “You can’t spell inaction without ICAO,” flew above the meetings. This year, however, there is optimism that the trend of inaction will change. The 191 member states of ICAO, which is the UN decision-making body charged with regulating aviation emissions, have a deadline of the end of their summit in October to finalize or adopt a global market-based measure (MBM) to limit carbon pollution from the aviation industry. Getting aviation emissions in check is certainly needed as the industry was not directly accounted for in the Paris Agreement last year. Furthermore, the airline industry accounts for more emissions than either South Korea or Canada, ranking it seventh as a source of overall emissions just behind Germany. Last year, the New Climate Economy published a working paper, “Raising Ambition to Reduce International Aviation and Maritime Emissions, which found that if ICAO fails to take bold steps, aviation emissions are projected to triple by 2050. Hopes remain high that the momentum from ratification announcements, a successful G20 and UNGA will continue through the ICAO meeting, which conclude October 7th, and help deliver a real market-based measure for cleaning up the airline industry in a logical manner.

Clearly, September looks to be a heavy month when it comes to policy making but there is plenty of fun to be had as well.  When the UN is in town for the General Assembly later in the month the Climate Group is once again hosting “Climate Week” in New York City. Climate Week is an annual event made up of meeting, concerts, strategy sessions, high-profile forums and even some music. Events like the Social Good Summit, the Clinton Global Initiative and plenty of meet and greets and happy hours make for ample opportunities to meet, collaborate and work in a number of ways to cut emissions. Beyond the Climate Week events, the middle of September will serve as the deadline for submissions for the Film4Climate event.

Film4Climate is an initiative of the World Bank’s Connect4Climate project that seeks to get aggregate hundreds of climate related films for a jury to select winners from. Already the the contest has more than 300 entries and the final day for filmmakers to submit their work for consideration for awards is September 15th. Once all the entries are gathered the jury will begin reviewing the entries and they plan on announcing the winners at a film festival in Marrakech, Morocco this November during the UN climate meetings held there. And what’s a big month without some music? On September 24th, the Global Citizen Festival comes back to New York’s Central Park with a focus on providing clean drinking water to the most rural parts of the world.

On top of everything else, September is often a month where climate impacts loom large. Droughts have continued to take a toll on much of the world and that is likely to continue throughout September. Wildfire season is also expected to kick into a high gear this fall as September can often be an incredibly active time for fires to rage on. Hurricane season officially began in June, but is ramping up now and predicted to be particularly active as the fall approaches. Also, at some time in September, NOAA will release its temperature findings for August. The last report, focused on July, revealed that not only was July the hottest July ever recorded, it was actually the hottest month ever recorded. This made July the 15th straight month a monthly temperature record had been set. If August is the warmest August ever recorded it will extend the streak to 16 months.  

So, underscores that the ninth month of the calendar year usually delivers with big moments, major policy meetings and even a few surprises for the global climate movement. From the looks of it, history is about to repeat itself.